Bihar Election Opinion Poll/ Survey
Head: NDA to win 140 seats in Bihar, says survey
Strap: Around 41.2 percent Muslim respondents are rooting for NDA alliance. It has also edge over Yadav, Women, Rural and Urban voters.
Body: In the biggest all-state survey, Zee News and JantaKaMood on nearly 32,000 respondents reveal that a change in imminent in Bihar. The NDA alliance would romp to a clear cut victory in the assembly elections in state to be held from October 12 to November 5in five phases. The counting for the polls will be held on November 8.
The alliance between BJP and its allies – Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) of Upendra Kushwaha and former CM of Bihar, Jitan Ram Manhji’s newly formed Hindustani Awaam Morcha (Secular) are going to win 140 seats in the state with a vote share of around 50.8 percent.
For the ‘Grand Alliance’ the number of seats is likely to be in just double digit. The survey says that it will win only 70 seats, which is just half of NDA share of seats. The ‘Grand Alliance’ consists of parties Janata Dal (United) – JDU, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) on 100 seats each and Congress contesting on 40 seats. The survey shows that ‘Grand Alliance’ will win 42.5 percent of votes, while others will get only 6.7 percent of voting share.
According to the survey there are 33 seats where the fight is going to very close and any party can win from these seats.
The survey predicts that there is hardly any polarisation of votes. The Muslim vote count between the ‘Grand Alliance’ and NDA shows a difference of little more than ten percent. Overall, around 41.2 percent Muslim respondents in Bihar are rooting for NDA, while ‘Grand Alliance’ will garner 52.4 percent.
The ‘Grand Alliance’ banking on Yadav community is only getting 47.5 percent of votes. Here BJP alliance has slight edge with 47.8 percent of Yadav community in favour of them.
The NDA has also a clear lead among rural, urban populace and female voters in the upcoming State elections.
According to Census 2011, Bihar has 88.70 percent of rural population. The NDA has a clear cut edge over its rival. While the NDA is likely to get 51 percent of rural votes and the ‘Grand Alliance’ will get only 42 percent of the rural votes.
In the urban area which is just 11.30 percent of the State, NDA and the ‘Grand Alliance’ are likely to get 50 percent and 45 percent of votes respectively.
The female voters are also inclined towards the NDA (52 percent) than the ‘Grand Alliance’ (40.5 percent)
The survey was conducted on all 243 assembly seats with a very big sample size conducted on September 12 and 13. A total of 31,906 respondents were surveyed on phone by JantaKaMood, a survey start-up by IITians with high end analytics and technology at its core. The margin of error is 0.73 percent and confidence level is 99 percent meaning that consistency is very-very high.
Table 1: Number of Seats
|Number of Seats||Close Fight|
Table 2: Who will win Bihar?
Table 3: Muslims vote share for parties
Table 4: Yadav Community vote share for parties
Table 5: Female voter share for Parties
Table 6: Rural-Urban voting